Spotlight Speaker: Lawrence Pidsley, Shapewerk
This week we are speaking with Lawrence Pidsley from Shapewerk, who is closing the main auditorium on Tuesday at PETEX. His talk: Cognitive Bias – The Pick-pocket in your Portfolio. A Look at how Cognitive Bias Destroys Value and a Review of Some of the Latest Techniques to Tackle the Problem will tackle a fundemental question: Do we make logical decisions? We spoke to Lawrence about what attendees can expect to learn from his presentation.
Do we make logical decisions?
Empirical observations support the view that systematic errors in thinking are common and difficult to recognise, taking on several different forms, which have been collectively described as Cognitive Bias. An example often observed is that once one has taken a position on an issue, one’s primary purpose becomes that of defending or justifying that position and treatment of evidence can become highly biased. Unfortunately this bias known as confirmation bias can often be an unwitting molding of the facts to fit hypotheses or beliefs, and hence becomes difficult to recognise.
Are there examples of illogical decisions (Cognitive Bias) in the Oil Exploration industry?
In the presentation I give examples of cognitive bias described in the OGA Moray Firth & Central North Sea well failure analysis, as well as other publications, together with similar examples from other industries, showing that these mistakes are universal and not specific to oil exploration.
How do we avoid making these mistakes?
I describe several tried and trusted methods to try and minimise the effects of cognitive bias and finish my presentation describing how my work with Shapewerk, producing physical 3D printed models of a prospect or field may help to alleviate several types of bias including ownership bias, loss aversion and planning fallacies, by bringing the interpretation out of the work station and into reality, giving focus for multi-disciplinary discussions where the risks and biases inherent in the development can be reviewed.